I remember sitting on a conference call with Martin, a long time Member/Subscriber who was so upset that I had written an article warning that Golds boom was over and to prepare mentally and emotionally for exit. You remember, Gold was flying and the price was hovering around $1500 an ounce. If you were watching the news or listening to the media, Gold was on its way to $5,000, maybe even $20,000 an ounce according to the Gold bugs. So, you can understand why emotions can mentally alter your decision making rather quickly.
I wrote in September of 2011 . . . "we believe gold is a bubble. We do not know in advance when it will top out, but buyers be aware that it will. Pay close attention to your Gold Chart and we will let you know when a signal appears!"
Here is where our charts exited to protect our members:
The first thing I want you to recognize is that we sent out a Gold warning in 2011, but the signal came out in 2013! Members were able to exit at precisely the same relative price as the week our warning was issued in 2011, almost 62 weeks earlier. We are always working to protect you, even if it is almost a few months after our written member warnings. Do not ever forget, it's never about how much you make, its always about how much you keep!
Are the funds in your retirement, 401k, or brokerage account protected if something should burst? Better to be safe than sorry. We will keep your money growing while protected from massive declines.
Well Kim Jong-un has "blinked" as he has now said he will wait before sending missiles towards the US Pacific territory of Guam. He said he was prepared for “the enveloping fire at Guam”, but he said he would watch what “the foolish Yankees” do before taking a decision. The reality is that he blinked because his missiles are not ready. Secondly, if the US shoots them out of the sky, he will look like a fool and have tremendous political pressure and possibly regime change. This stabilizes the international markets and this is why the markets flew up yesterday, and not as much today. The information was already built into the markets and the public is always last to know.
Corporate Earnings Warning
“Adjusted” earnings growth is 10.2% year-over-year in the second quarter, according to FactSet, based on the 91% of the companies in the S&P 500 that have reported results. The energy sector was a key driver, with 332% “adjusted” earnings growth from the oil-bust levels of a year ago.
The sectors with double-digit earnings growth: information technology (14.7%), utilities (10.8%), and financials (10.3%). The rest were single digit. Earnings in the consumer discretionary sector declined.
Revenues grew 5.1%, also led by the energy sector. At the beginning of Q2 last year, the WTI grade of crude oil traded at $35 a barrel. In Q2 this year, WTI ranged from $42 to $53 a barrel.
So the Wall-Street hype machine is cranking at maximum RPM to propagate the great news that earnings are soaring, and that this is the reason why stocks should also be soaring, and forget everything else. The hype machine carefully avoids showing the bigger picture which is dismal for earnings and ludicrous for stock valuations.
Aggregate earnings per share (EPS) for the S&P 500 companies on a trailing 12-months basis rose for the second quarter in a row. That’s the foundation of the Wall Street hype.
But here’s the thing with these EPS: they’re now back where they had been in… May 2014.
Yep. More than three years of earnings stagnation. No growth whatsoever, even for “adjusted” earnings. In fact, on a trailing 12-month basis, aggregate EPS of the S&P 500 companies are down about 5% from their peak in Q4 2014. And yet, over the same three-plus years of total earnings stagnation, the S&P 500 index has soared 34%.
This chart shows those “adjusted” earnings per share for the S&P 500 companies (black line) and the S&P 500 index (blue line). Chart via FactSet (click to enlarge). I marked August 2012 as the point five years ago, and May 2014:
So, if a crash occurs, are you protected?
Here is what our subscribers have made on just one of our trend charts!
This is one of our recent charts showing the difference of buy and hold versus our trend signals. The chart above illustrates that while we warn investors of economics that may cause markets around the world to decline, our private members are using charts that can help them stay ahead of the pack.
There is a lot happening in the world today. North Korea, Russia, China, Iran. Are you protected and profiting at the same time?
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Livio S. Nespoli has been a broker, registered investment advisor, and financial publisher since 1985.