Take A Deep Breath
When market volatility rises in the middle of the month, it is always a good to take a deep breath and recognize that a signal will come at the end of the month.
More importantly, it is a great idea to sit back and compare daily, weekly, and monthly charts to get a perspective on the broader movement.
So lets to that now.
We should see a trend change come June in S&P 500 Cash Index so pay attention to events ahead.
The market is immediately in a bearish posture near-term for now warning caution should be taken. S&P 500 Cash Index closing today of 2000.54 so far is trading down about 2.12% for the year from last year's closing of 2043.94. Thus far, we have been trading down for the past 13 days, following the high established Wed. Jun. 8, 2016.
On the weekly level, we have been generally trading down for the past 2 weeks. From a longer-term viewpoint, this market has been trading down for the past 2 weeks. While this market has been in a bearish consolidation phase overall for the past 6 months, the past 3 months has witnessed a rally of 15.84% percent.
Eyeballing the immediate trend is Bearish on the weekly level yet new lows have been made penetrating the week of June 13th's low. However, we closed toward the low of the trading session warning there is still some weakness.
A month-end closing below 2025.91 will warn that the market is losing its upward momentum and should retest support below. It will take generally a closing above 2103.48 to maintain a near-term upward rally. Some caution is necessary since the last high 2116.48 was important given we did obtain a sell signal from that event established during November 2015.
Critically, my broader analysis outlook recognizes that the current bearish progression in S&P 500 Cash Index reflects only a temporary reaction within a broader bull market trend. Critically, my broader analysis outlook in S&P 500 Cash Index remains somewhat neutral at this present moment trading within last years range of 2134.72 and 1867.01.
As you can see in the chart, although very volatile, and I have detailed in many posts, do not panic! The pricing stands right in the middle of the trend channel. And as you can see, we really have not gone very far since mid 2014.
On June 17th I posted a Brexit video market update, so if you have not done so already, please take the time to Locate and watch that now.
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