After looking at a broad range of indexes, sectors and the current oscillator picture, I now think the scales tip in favor of the April 7th daily swing low as having marked a trading cycle low. Short-term, this cuts two ways in that it makes it possible for further short-term strength and quiet honestly for a move above the previous short-term high, but in light of the intermediate-term cycle that is trying to rollover, this also opens the door for a fresh cycle top.
Regardless, the evidence continues to be suggestive of the higher degree intermediate-term cycle top and we still have weekly swing highs in many of the indexes and sectors such as the Transports, the Broker Dealers Index, the Banking Index, the Dow Jones Automotive Index, the Dow Jones Composite, the CAC, the DAX and the Nikkei to name a few. The fact that we have weekly swing highs in the sectors and indexes that we do is evidence that the intermediate-term cycle is trying to peak.
Bottom line, while the topping of this intermediate-term cycle has been about as frustrating as frustrating can get, the bearish structure stands and every indication is that the market is in the process of making an intermediate-term cycle top.
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